Flagged for methodological concerns

Severe selection bias: recruitment was concentrated in self-selected online communities — most prominently Reddit's ex-Mormon forum and ex-Mormon / apologetic podcast mailing lists — which dramatically oversample disaffiliated, questioning, and activated members relative to typical Sunday attendance. Despite this, headline figures (e.g., "1 in 3 active members no longer believes") are presented as if generalizable to active Latter-day Saints overall. They are not. This sample frame cannot support population-level claims about belief among active members; comparable probability samples (Pew RLS 2023–24, BYU Religious Seismology Survey, Global Flourishing Study) show very different distributions.

Study2026DisaffiliationSurveyBeliefOnline Sample

Torn: Why People We Love Are Leaving the Church and What We Can Learn from Them

Jeff Strong · Self-published (forthcoming book) — surfaced via Deseret News opinion coverage

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Abstract

A ~20,000-respondent survey of current and former Latter-day Saints, recruited through social-media posts (including Reddit's ex-Mormon community) and the mailing lists of both apologetic and ex-Mormon podcasts. The survey is the data basis for the forthcoming book "Torn." A widely circulated headline finding is that roughly 1 in 3 active members surveyed "no longer believes the Church is what it claims."

Findings for Latter-day Saints

Reports that roughly 1 in 3 active members in the sample say they no longer believe the Church is what it claims.
Recruitment via Reddit ex-Mormon communities, apologetic podcasts, and ex-Mormon podcast mailing lists.
Sample size approximately 20,000 respondents.

Limitations in methodology

Non-probability online recruitment from highly activated communities (Reddit r/exmormon, apologetic and ex-Mormon podcast lists). Sample frame is not the LDS membership at large.

Source: https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2026/05/07/latter-day-saint-stats-representative-data/

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APA

Strong, J. (2026). Torn: Why People We Love Are Leaving the Church and What We Can Learn from Them. Self-published (forthcoming book) — surfaced via Deseret News opinion coverage. https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2026/05/07/latter-day-saint-stats-representative-data/

MLA

Jeff Strong. "Torn: Why People We Love Are Leaving the Church and What We Can Learn from Them." Self-published (forthcoming book) — surfaced via Deseret News opinion coverage, 2026. https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2026/05/07/latter-day-saint-stats-representative-data/.

BibTeX

@article{strong_torn_disaffiliation_survey,
  title = {Torn: Why People We Love Are Leaving the Church and What We Can Learn from Them},
  author = {Jeff Strong},
  year = {2026},
  journal = {Self-published (forthcoming book) — surfaced via Deseret News opinion coverage},
  url = {https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2026/05/07/latter-day-saint-stats-representative-data/},
}

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