Do Mormon Missions Work?

Abstract

Bass uses Cooperative Election Study data (9,189 LDS respondents; 370,000 U.S. Christians) to test whether two-year missionary service raises long-run devotion. He finds a distinct "devotion bump" in young-adult LDS members that has no equivalent in the broader U.S. Christian population, peaking around the typical post-mission age.

Findings for Latter-day Saints

• LDS members in their 20s are more than 2× as devout as same-age U.S. Christians on the composite measure.
• The LDS devotion bump peaks around age 30, aligning with post-mission years.
• Analysis covers 9,189 LDS respondents and ~370,000 U.S. Christian respondents.
• LDS devotion exceeds U.S. Christian devotion at every age.
• The devotion bump stabilizes by age 50, suggesting partly temporary post-mission effects.

Limitations in methodology

Substack blog analysis; cross-sectional CES data cannot establish causation — selection effects (who serves missions) likely contribute to the bump alongside any missionary effect.

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Cite this study

Bass, A. (2025). Do Mormon Missions Work?. Mormon Metrics (Substack). https://mormonmetrics.com/p/do-mormon-missions-work

Alex Bass. "Do Mormon Missions Work?." Mormon Metrics (Substack), 2025. https://mormonmetrics.com/p/do-mormon-missions-work.

@article{bass_2025_do_mormon_missions_work,
  title = {Do Mormon Missions Work?},
  author = {Alex Bass},
  year = {2025},
  journal = {Mormon Metrics (Substack)},
  url = {https://mormonmetrics.com/p/do-mormon-missions-work},
}