Alex Bass · Mormon Metrics (Substack)

Analysis of newly released state-level LDS membership data showing the first U.S. national decline in official membership. The West region drives the overall decline while other regions grow modestly. California and Oregon are long-running outliers, but 2024–2025 saw broad state-level losses for the first time.
Substack blog analysis of official Church membership records; "membership" follows Church definitions (not self-identification), which inflates totals relative to survey-based estimates.
Source: https://mormonmetrics.com/p/the-us-is-declining-in-official-membership
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Bass, A. (2026). The United States Is Declining In Official LDS Membership For The First Time. Why?. Mormon Metrics (Substack). https://mormonmetrics.com/p/the-us-is-declining-in-official-membership
Alex Bass. "The United States Is Declining In Official LDS Membership For The First Time. Why?." Mormon Metrics (Substack), 2026. https://mormonmetrics.com/p/the-us-is-declining-in-official-membership.
@article{bass_2026_us_declining_official_membership,
title = {The United States Is Declining In Official LDS Membership For The First Time. Why?},
author = {Alex Bass},
year = {2026},
journal = {Mormon Metrics (Substack)},
url = {https://mormonmetrics.com/p/the-us-is-declining-in-official-membership},
}Report an error on this study.
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