The United States Is Declining In Official LDS Membership For The First Time. Why?

Abstract

Analysis of newly released state-level LDS membership data showing the first U.S. national decline in official membership. The West region drives the overall decline while other regions grow modestly. California and Oregon are long-running outliers, but 2024–2025 saw broad state-level losses for the first time.

Findings for Latter-day Saints

• Only 2 states declined in membership from 2011–2025 over the full period: California (-6%) and Oregon (-1%).
• However, 27 of 50 states experienced membership declines between 2024 and 2025.
• The West region accounts for the overall U.S. decline; the other three Census regions grew.
• Washington DC grew 9% in membership from 2024 to 2025.
• California population grew from 37M (2011) to 39M (2025) despite LDS membership losses there.

Limitations in methodology

Substack blog analysis of official Church membership records; "membership" follows Church definitions (not self-identification), which inflates totals relative to survey-based estimates.

Related studies

• 2026MembershipGrowth

  Church Membership Growth by U.S. State, 2000–2025

  David Schneider, Church News

• 2026DemographicsMembership

  Two Kinds Of Growth: Worldwide LDS Membership Growth Over 14 Years

  Alex Bass

Cite this study

Bass, A. (2026). The United States Is Declining In Official LDS Membership For The First Time. Why?. Mormon Metrics (Substack). https://mormonmetrics.com/p/the-us-is-declining-in-official-membership

Alex Bass. "The United States Is Declining In Official LDS Membership For The First Time. Why?." Mormon Metrics (Substack), 2026. https://mormonmetrics.com/p/the-us-is-declining-in-official-membership.

@article{bass_2026_us_declining_official_membership,
  title = {The United States Is Declining In Official LDS Membership For The First Time. Why?},
  author = {Alex Bass},
  year = {2026},
  journal = {Mormon Metrics (Substack)},
  url = {https://mormonmetrics.com/p/the-us-is-declining-in-official-membership},
}